(資料圖片僅(jin)供參考)

西南證券股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有限公司徐卿近期對邦基科技進行研(yan)究(jiu)并發布了(le)研(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)告(gao)(gao)《受益養殖工字化發展(zhan)趨勢，公司有望(wang)迎量(liang)價(jia)齊升》，本報(bao)告(gao)(gao)對邦基科技給出買入評級，認為其目標價(jia)位(wei)為19.80元(yuan)，當(dang)前股(gu)(gu)價(jia)為16.79元(yuan)，預期上漲幅度為17.93%。

邦基(ji)科技(603151)　　投資要點(dian)　　推薦邏輯：1)下(xia)游(you)需(xu)求向(xiang)好：]2018-2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)行(xing)業(ye)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)規(gui)模年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均復(fu)合增(zeng)速(su)7.5%，其中豬(zhu)飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)行(xing)業(ye)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)規(gui)模年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均復(fu)合增(zeng)速(su)8.8%，行(xing)業(ye)景氣度仍在上(shang)(shang)(shang)升通道，客戶群體穩定增(zeng)長；2)盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)處于業(ye)內(nei)較高水平(ping)(ping),2021-2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)銷售毛(mao)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)13.7%、13.9%,顯著(zhu)高于申萬飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)行(xing)業(ye)均值(zhi)(zhi)10.0%，10.4%；3)募資擴張飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，未來3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)將增(zeng)加145%。　　規(gui)模化(hua)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)新(xin)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)，養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)結構向(xiang)工(gong)(gong)字型(xing)演化(hua)。2021-2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，牧原(yuan)、溫氏等13家(jia)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)(shi)豬(zhu)企固定資產(chan)折舊(jiu)占營收比例均值(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)7.3%、8.0%，顯著(zhu)高于2015-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)3.0%-3.7%的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)(ping)。這主要是因(yin)為(wei)(wei)(wei)非(fei)瘟以(yi)來，規(gui)模養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)場(chang)普遍于疾(ji)病防控裝備(bei)、研發上(shang)(shang)(shang)投入(ru)較大(da)。而散戶疫(yi)(yi)病防控成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)較為(wei)(wei)(wei)靈活，非(fei)瘟常態化(hua)后相對(dui)養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)有(you)優勢(shi)。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來，全國生豬(zhu)疫(yi)(yi)情總體平(ping)(ping)穩，預計規(gui)模化(hua)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)新(xin)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)，散養(yang)(yang)戶難以(yi)被進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步(bu)快(kuai)速(su)淘汰(tai)，養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)結構向(xiang)工(gong)(gong)字型(xing)演化(hua)。若非(fei)瘟疫(yi)(yi)苗成(cheng)(cheng)功(gong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)(shi)，家(jia)庭農場(chang)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)較為(wei)(wei)(wei)簡單的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)解(jie)決(jue)非(fei)瘟問題，則這一(yi)進(jin)(jin)程有(you)望(wang)(wang)被加速(su)。　　旺季在即(ji)豬(zhu)價(jia)(jia)反(fan)彈(dan)可(ke)(ke)(ke)期，成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)下(xia)降(jiang)助力(li)養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)回(hui)(hui)升。據農業(ye)農村部數據，5月4日(ri)(ri)以(yi)來，仔(zi)豬(zhu)價(jia)(jia)格由(you)36.7元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤持(chi)續下(xia)跌(die)至6月21日(ri)(ri)34.35元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，累計下(xia)跌(die)6.4%。行(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)長期虧損疊加仔(zi)豬(zhu)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)快(kuai)速(su)降(jiang)低，產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)去化(hua)有(you)望(wang)(wang)加速(su)，利(li)(li)(li)好后市(shi)(shi)豬(zhu)價(jia)(jia)。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)6月21日(ri)(ri)玉米、豆粕價(jia)(jia)格分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.92元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤、4.30元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，分別較年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初下(xia)降(jiang)4%、14.7%。飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)降(jiang)價(jia)(jia)有(you)利(li)(li)(li)于進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步(bu)降(jiang)低養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)，價(jia)(jia)格的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升與(yu)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降(jiang)助力(li)養(yang)(yang)殖(zhi)利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)回(hui)(hui)升。　　盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)處于業(ye)內(nei)較高水平(ping)(ping)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)深耕高毛(mao)利(li)(li)(li)段(duan)(duan)豬(zhu)前(qian)段(duan)(duan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)，未來幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)有(you)望(wang)(wang)繼續維持(chi)行(xing)業(ye)領先水平(ping)(ping)。2018-2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)一(yi)季度，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)毛(mao)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)13.5%、15.1%、13.9%、12.6%和13.7%、13.9%。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)毛(mao)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)(lv)水平(ping)(ping)高于同行(xing)業(ye)可(ke)(ke)(ke)比公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)。　　募資擴張飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，未來3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)將增(zeng)加145%。面對(dui)不斷增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)計劃未來三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)擴大(da)豬(zhu)飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)目(mu)前(qian)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)61.7萬噸(dun)，全部項(xiang)目(mu)完成(cheng)(cheng)后，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)將新(xin)增(zeng)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)達90萬噸(dun)，產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)增(zeng)長145.9%。　　盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)預測(ce)與(yu)投資建議。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)短期有(you)望(wang)(wang)受益于生豬(zhu)供給增(zeng)加及豬(zhu)價(jia)(jia)季節性回(hui)(hui)升，中長期我國飼(si)(si)料(liao)(liao)(liao)行(xing)業(ye)仍有(you)較大(da)發展潛力(li)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)成(cheng)(cheng)長可(ke)(ke)(ke)期。我們預計2023~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)EPS為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.66、0.96、1.22元(yuan)，2023~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)復(fu)合增(zeng)速(su)19.4%。給予公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)30倍PE估值(zhi)(zhi)，目(mu)標價(jia)(jia)19.8元(yuan)，首次(ci)覆(fu)蓋給予“買入(ru)”評級(ji)。　　風(feng)險(xian)(xian)提示：生豬(zhu)及豬(zhu)肉價(jia)(jia)格波動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)、動物疫(yi)(yi)情風(feng)險(xian)(xian)、規(gui)模擴張不及預期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)、產(chan)品競爭力(li)降(jiang)低的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

證券之星數據(ju)中心根(gen)據(ju)近三年(nian)(nian)發(fa)布(bu)的(de)研(yan)報(bao)數據(ju)計算，中信建投證券王明琦研(yan)究員團隊對(dui)該股研(yan)究較(jiao)為深入，近三年(nian)(nian)預(yu)測(ce)(ce)準(zhun)確度均值(zhi)為79.8%，其預(yu)測(ce)(ce)2023年(nian)(nian)度歸屬(shu)凈利(li)潤為盈利(li)1.6億，根(gen)據(ju)現(xian)價(jia)換(huan)算的(de)預(yu)測(ce)(ce)PE為17.5。

最(zui)新盈利預測明細如下(xia)：

該股(gu)最(zui)近90天內(nei)(nei)共有3家機(ji)構(gou)(gou)給出評級，買入評級2家，增持(chi)評級1家；過(guo)去90天內(nei)(nei)機(ji)構(gou)(gou)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)均價為(wei)25.9。根(gen)據近五年財(cai)(cai)報(bao)數據，證券(quan)之星(xing)估值分析工具(ju)顯示，邦基科技(603151)行業內(nei)(nei)競爭力的護城(cheng)河(he)較差，盈(ying)利能力良好，營收成長性(xing)一般。財(cai)(cai)務可能有隱憂，須(xu)重點關注(zhu)的財(cai)(cai)務指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)包括：存貨/營收率增幅、經(jing)營現金流/利潤率。該股(gu)好公司指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)2.5星(xing)，好價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)3.5星(xing)，綜合指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)3星(xing)。(指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)僅供參考，指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)范圍(wei)：0 ~ 5星(xing)，最(zui)高5星(xing))